The House Of Heat

ASU is ranked 8th in the first BCS poll, trailing 7th place Kentucky by a few ten-thousandths of a percentage point. If Ohio State loses and everything else holds up pitting USF against Boston College in the MNC game, I might have to give up college football all together. I hear bull riding is all the rage, though. Does ASU have a team?

Even if ASU were to win out (cart before the horse, I know) could they get Auburned and be left out of the championship game? Looking at the teams ahead, I'd say there's a strong possibility.

Oklahoma will most likely win out, with their biggest stumbling block being their instate rival OSU Cowboys. Thanks to the overall weakness of the Big XII, the Sun Devils ought to be able to leapfrog them with Cal, Oregon, and USC all in the top 12, giving ASU strength of schedule bumps along the way. The same scenario goes for the lackluster ACC (Boston College) and Big East (USF).

Ohio State's schedule thus far has been about as tough as ASU's (if that) but their last five games area against the top half if the Big Televen in Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. The final four have been in and out of the polls in the last few weeks, with Penn State and Michigan looking to climb again after each of them turned in their best performances of the season this past Saturday. Still, a loss to any of them ought to bounce them from the Superdome, even if Michigan wins out. The problem here is that if UM does run the table, they're Big Ten Champs and Ohio State most likely steals an at large BCS bid.

The SEC teams are a different animal. Kentucky, Sakerlina, and LSU already have one loss apiece and are still ahead of ASU. It's foreseeable for each of them to lose another game, but if one of them runs the table the SEC strength of schedule will almost undoubtedly keep one of them at one or two should the teams ahead of them lose at some point. Also consider the SOS bump they get from playing in the SEC championship game, and ASU could be on the outside looking in.

And what if ASU doesn't run the table, as they most likely won't? (just talking statistically, don't crucify me) A loss to Cal, Oregon, or USC would allow any one of those teams to leap the Devils in the standings, and historically the BCS computer isn't very keen on putting two Pac-10 teams in the BCS. This bumps a hypothetical 11-1 ASU team to the Holiday Bowl asuming the conference team that beat us doesn't go to the MNC game. The Pac-10 bowl agreements suck, but that's a topic for another day.

The bottom line: no one has control of any of this, so the Sun Devils have to get out and take care of business. They control their own destiny in terms of the Rose Bowl, and that's all they can worry about for now. Should things shake out and a trip to New Orleans comes our way that's gravy, but we can only concern ourselves with what we can control.

Labels: getting ahead of ourselves, Pac-10 business, the new era