Sunday, November 04, 2007
Well that sucked.
So we lost. The sting isn't as bad as it was immediately following the game, but the BCS is looking like a streatch barring a complete catastrophe, not that the 2007 college football season hasn't been without the unbelievable. More on that in a moment, but what the hell happened?
We got beat by a better team but I think Oregon fans will admit that Saturday's game wasn't their best performance. There were several dropped passes by the Ducks, they were without superman Dennis Dixon for the fourth quarter, and the Oregon pass D was less than spectacular. While many doors were left open for ASU throughout the night, the Sun Devils couldn't seem to walk through any of them. Here's my list of gripes:
1) Red zone efficiency. I don't think it's been that bad inside the 20 since 2004, having 1st and goal inside the 5 and settling for three. There were four field goal attempts on the night, one of which was directly caused by poor clock management. ASU had gained momentum for the first time in the game and with a touchdown on the last drive of the 1st half the Devils could have been within one, carrying a positive attitude into the locker room knowing they get the ball to start the second half wiith an opportunity to take the lead. Instead they settle for a missed field goal and momentum swings back to Oregon.
2) ASU play calling. WTF? The ghost of Dirk Koetter haunted Autzen last night, going pass, pass, pass starting midway through the third quarter. When ASU did run, it was only in the most obvious situations. On the first posession the Devils ran between the tackles on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and goal before kicking a three-pointer. Halfway through the 3rd quarter on 4th and goal as ASU was mounting a comeback, everyone knew the play that was coming once Dmitri Nance lined up in the backfield. Handoff, left side of the line. It burned Washington and Cal for first downs but Oregon had seen the tape and were ready. A quote from Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, taken from the Arizona Republic:
"On fourth and 1, they always like to run (a certain) play," Aliotti said, "so I said we're going to blitz those linebackers through that gap. We're going to hit it and take a shot. And if they do something else, then maybe we're in trouble, but we blitzed the backers, and it worked."Loss of two, Duck ball. Oregon inserted that scheme on Saturday morning, hours before kickoff.
After that drive the run-based game plan was completely abandoned. Once Oregon realized we were going all pass, the defense pinned their ears back and blitzed to the tune of six second-half sacks.
3) Luck runs out. How many fumbles has ASU lost this season? What's the Sun Devils' 4th down conversion rate on the season? How many field goals have been missed on the year? What's the red zone conversion rate? Shit happens, and Weber, Thompson, et. al. all picked an extremely bad time to start. As much as I would have loved to lynch those two diuring the game, you really can't blame them as it was a team loss, from coaching on down. All of these errors coupled with playing the early-deficit game finally burned ASU. One can credit Oregon's defense and home-field advantage, but as both Rudy Carpenter and Mike Pollak noted in post game interviews, it all came down to a lack of execution on ASU's part.
4) Oregon is really, really good. Hats off to this Duck team, as Dennis Dixon was everything advdrtised and BOTH Jaison Williams and Jonathan Stewart are the most underrated players at their respective positions in the nation. The defense has it's holes in the secondary, but they stop the run well and they step up as a unit when they have to. The Ducks play focused, smart football; they are confident without being boastful. I heard Dixon say several times this week, including post-game, that everyone on this team "plays within themselves." Keep doing what you do without letting your heads get too big and a trip to New Orleans is probably in your future. Congratulations on your victory, Ducks.
So what's the deal on the big picture? Keep remembering, Devil fans, that the Rose Bowl is still well within reach. Oregon still has to play at Arizona next Thursday night in a game where the punters might as well stay home, then they travel to the Rose Bowl to battle the most bipolar team in college football history, and then they host a bitch of a rivalry game against Oregon State in the annual Civil War clash. If ASU takes care of business and wins out, one can hope the Ducks have a hiccup. I honestly don't want it to go down that way, but I'll take it. A conference championship is a conference championship.
It comes without a ring, but a more honorable way to visit Pasadena in January would be for Oregon to win out and qualify for the national championship game in New Orleans. (they should have jumped LSU in the rankings today, that's total whoreshit but I digress) ASU also wins out and receives an at-large BCS bid, Pac-10 pride holla! the problem is that the BCS hates the Pac-10 more than Les Miles does, and the conference of champions has not put two teams into the BCS since the evil system formed in 1998. There will be stiff competition as there are only two at-large spots available, and here's a quick snapshot of each conference.
The SEC: the eastern division seems to be taking care of itself by knocking each other off in cannibalistic fashion, but a Georgia loss would be nice at some point. We reeeeeeally need LSU to drop a game before the SEC championship game but the schedule is mighty soft. Help us Darren McFadden, you're our only hope. LSU will still get an at-large bid if they lose the SECCG, so they definitely need to win that one. If Oregon didn't skip them after beating the BCS #4, they won't do it for the rest of the year.
The Big Televen: Help a brother out, Zooker. Illinois goes to the horseshoe this Saturday to face Ohio State, and it's the last chance to knock OSU out of the top spot without any reprecussions. If Ohio State loses to Michigan the Buckeyes may still garner an at large bid in the shadow of Michigan's automatic bid, even though strength of schedule is heavily in ASU's favor. Remember that they play near the east coast and ASU desn't have anybody like Brent Musberger campaigning for them. I can't say it enough, the whole world hates the Pac-10.
The Big East: God help us all of the Big East put two teams into the BCS, but luckily it looks impossible. West Virginia has the best case for an at-large bid if UConn wins out but the two face each other on November 24 in an elimination game. No conference championship game to worry about, only eight Big East teams field football squads.
The ACC: Boston College is still ranked ahead of ASU even though THEY LOST AT HOME TO AN UNRANKED TEAM and ASU lost on the road to the hottest team in the country. Whatever. They'll apparently have to lose to another team for ASU to pass them in to an at-large bid, and I'm sure Virginia Tech would love some sweet revenge after deflating at home to BC last Thursday. Not too many worries here, since Tech will have a tough case as a two loss team, even though they have the best case of any two loss team.
The Big XII: ...and here lies the problem. Kansas is undefeated, Missourah has one loss to a badass Oklahoma team, and Oklahoma has one loss but is in the driver's seat in the south. The Sooners have had rough times in their Bedlam Series with Okie State, and this year looks to be no different with the Pokes' offensive firepower. Kansas faces their biggest test so far this week at Okie State, and there will be an elimination game between the Jayhawks and Mizzou on Thanksgiving weekend. If neither team stumbles before Turkey day, the best case scenario for Devil fans will be for Mizzou to win and then lose to Oklahoma. I'm expecting OU to roll in the CG, and even with a weak SOS the Jayhawks could make a strong case for a bid with only one loss to a good Sooner squad. If Kansas wins out, Oklahoma's other loss was early enough that most will forget about it and they won't get dropped too far, probably leaving them neck-and-neck with ASU for the last BCS spot.
Cowboy Pete, Sparky's new friend. It'll be a bitch, but anything can happen this year. A team that lost to Appalachian State could still go to the Rose Bowl for chrissakes.
Labels: blogpollin', getting ahead of ourselves, Oh crap here we go again
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Polls, etc.
The preseason AP poll was released today and Arizona State falls into the "others receiving votes" category with 17 votes, giving Sparky an unofficial ranking of 36th nationally. Here's the list from the writers:
1. USC
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklaoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Ohio State
12. Cal
13. Georgia
14. UCLA
15. Tennessee
16. Rutgers
17. Penn State
18. Auburn
19. Florida State
20. Nebraska
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Hawaii
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M
Others receiving votes: Missouri 128, Georgia Tech 94, Boston College 75, Oregon 73, South Carolina 69, Miami 68, Alabama 66, Oregon St. 42, Wake Forest 40, South Florida 28, Arizona St. 17, Brigham Young 14, Southern Mississippi 12, Notre Dame 11, Virginia 7, Clemson 6, Oklahoma St. 3, Texas Tech 2, Houston 1, Kentucky 1, North Carolina St. 1, Purdue 1.
Upon further review, I need to revise my preseason to make up for the gross oversight of Wisconsin. I had the Badgers in a pool of teams for consideration and somehow skimmed over them. The original can be found elsewhere, but here's the revised list:
1. USC
2. West Virginia
3. LSU
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Virginia Tech
8. Arkansas
9. Louisville
10. Wisconsin
11. UCLA
12. South Carolina
13. Florida State
14. Tennessee
15. Ohio State
16. Cal
17. Penn State
18. Georgia
19. Boston College
20. Oklahoma State
21. Hawaii
22. Rutgers
23. Florida
24. Clemson
25. San Jose State
Sorry Duckies.
With more on ASU, it's probably better for them to be on the outside looking in. The rankings mean nothing until the first BCS rankings are tabulated in week six, and even then they're not that huge of a deal. Here's how the Devils fared in the polls for the last ten years:
You'll have to ignore the dismal era of the Snyder/Koetter turnover where the Devils were ranked in neither poll for three straight seasons, but otherwise Arizona State has started five of the last ten seasons in the AP Top 25, never finishing there in any of them. Conversely, the only two times ASU has had Top 25 finishes since the magical 1996 season they were unranked in August, making the writers wrong wrong wrong about the Devils in seven of the last ten polls. I put this erroneous voting on YOU, east coast media bias.
The soft early schedule will aid the Sun Devils to climb the rankings as others drop games, but it will be on the team to stay there after October 27 when the schedule drastically increases in difficulty. If any of that matters to you.
1. USC
2. LSU
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Michigan
6. Florida
7. Wisconsin
8. Oklaoma
9. Virginia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Ohio State
12. Cal
13. Georgia
14. UCLA
15. Tennessee
16. Rutgers
17. Penn State
18. Auburn
19. Florida State
20. Nebraska
21. Arkansas
22. TCU
23. Hawaii
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M
Others receiving votes: Missouri 128, Georgia Tech 94, Boston College 75, Oregon 73, South Carolina 69, Miami 68, Alabama 66, Oregon St. 42, Wake Forest 40, South Florida 28, Arizona St. 17, Brigham Young 14, Southern Mississippi 12, Notre Dame 11, Virginia 7, Clemson 6, Oklahoma St. 3, Texas Tech 2, Houston 1, Kentucky 1, North Carolina St. 1, Purdue 1.
Upon further review, I need to revise my preseason to make up for the gross oversight of Wisconsin. I had the Badgers in a pool of teams for consideration and somehow skimmed over them. The original can be found elsewhere, but here's the revised list:
1. USC
2. West Virginia
3. LSU
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas
7. Virginia Tech
8. Arkansas
9. Louisville
10. Wisconsin
11. UCLA
12. South Carolina
13. Florida State
14. Tennessee
15. Ohio State
16. Cal
17. Penn State
18. Georgia
19. Boston College
20. Oklahoma State
21. Hawaii
22. Rutgers
23. Florida
24. Clemson
25. San Jose State
Sorry Duckies.
With more on ASU, it's probably better for them to be on the outside looking in. The rankings mean nothing until the first BCS rankings are tabulated in week six, and even then they're not that huge of a deal. Here's how the Devils fared in the polls for the last ten years:
Year Pre Post Record
1997 NR 14 9-3
1998 8 NR 5-6
1999 25 NR 6-6
2000 NR NR 6-6
2001 NR NR 4-7
2002 NR NR 6-6
2003 22 NR 5-7
2004 NR 19 9-3
2005 20 NR 7-5
2006 24 NR 7-6
You'll have to ignore the dismal era of the Snyder/Koetter turnover where the Devils were ranked in neither poll for three straight seasons, but otherwise Arizona State has started five of the last ten seasons in the AP Top 25, never finishing there in any of them. Conversely, the only two times ASU has had Top 25 finishes since the magical 1996 season they were unranked in August, making the writers wrong wrong wrong about the Devils in seven of the last ten polls. I put this erroneous voting on YOU, east coast media bias.The soft early schedule will aid the Sun Devils to climb the rankings as others drop games, but it will be on the team to stay there after October 27 when the schedule drastically increases in difficulty. If any of that matters to you.
Labels: blogpollin'
Friday, August 17, 2007
Blogpollin'
Here it is, my preseason top 25. I based my list on two primary factors, last year’s success and returning assets. It’s fluid as all hell and will change a ton between now and September 4.
This isn’t a prediction of how teams will finish, and schedules were not examined. This is simply my perception of the country’s top 25 teams as they stand right now. There’s obviously a lot of guesswork here, and I made a special effort to not look at other preseason rankings. It seemed like there were a few teams that belonged in the top 10 but that there was an abundance of teams that should be in the 10-20 range. Here goes…
1.USC
A very easy one here with essentially the entire defense back from a damn good team. JD Booty has a year of experience and the offensive skill players are a group of plug-and-play 5 star blue chippers.
2. West Virginia
A dangerous offense returns all of the skill players and the best running back recruit in the nation in Noel Devine.
3. LSU
Absolutely incredible depth to offset losing the #1 NFL draft choice.
4. Michigan
Many schools have “triplets,” but none are better than Henne, Manningham, and Hart.
5. Oklahoma
No QB? No problem. OU has superb talent at every position and a new QB will make their margins of victory smaller, that’s all.
6. Texas
They had a hiccup year after the 2005 MNC, but things seem to be coming back together in Austin. Everything is bigger there, after all.
7. Virginia Tech
On top of being everyone’s sentimental favorites, the running game and defense are going to be top notch, especially with one of the best linebacking corps in the country.
8. Louisville
The nation’s best drop-back passer is surrounded by a big, physical team. I wouldn't want to play them.
9. Arkansas
The pairing of the best player in college football and the most underrated running back in college football will be a tough tandem.
10. UCLA
20 starters back on a strong defensive team. Skill players a-plenty, too. Consistency will be key considering the blowout loss that followed the upset of USC.
11. South Carolina
The ‘Cock defense has had some growing pains but almost all of them are coming back and they’ve gelled as a unit. Losing Cory Boyd will hurt, but you can count on Spurrier to find decent receivers.
12. Florida State
I tried to ignore coach change hype (see ASU) but this team is loaded to the gills with talent and they were probably held back by jump-ball Jeffy. Watch out for a brewing QB controversy, too.
13. Tennessee
They’ll always have a good line and run game, but Erik Ainge has matured and seems ready to lead this year’s Vols.
14. Ohio State
Tressel will do just fine with a green RB and no passing game, just like he did in 2002.
15. Cal
They’re losing some absolute badasses on defense, but DeSean Jackson has a skill for making people look bad and he’s complimented by another great Tedford back in Justin Forsett.
16. Penn State
This is Penn State at it’s finest: Good QB, good linebackers, and average skill players. It will leave them looking up at Michigan and Ohio State in the Big 10, however.
17. Georgia
A good team last year that lost focus in a few games and it cost them. Stafford is a year better but a lot of little question marks on both sides of the ball keeps them from being higher.
18. Boston College
Matt Ryan has been anointed the best QB in the ACC and they bring a ton back on defense.
19. Oklahoma State
Here comes the offense! They can play some D, but they’ll be this year’s Texas Tech and beat a few teams by simply outscoring them.
20. Hawaii
The Hawaii Bowl taught me that these guys can actually play. They’ve got a mean, physical defense and some quarterback named Colt.
21. Rutgers
Ray Rice, all day long. Schiano built this program the right way and depth is developing everywhere.
22. Florida
Losing nine defensive starters and a starting QB leads to a mid-20s mercy ranking for the champs.
23. Clemson
One of the better running back tandems in the country with Spiller and Davis. They could get over the hump this year and challenge for the ACC title.
24. San Jose State
Ahhh, a sexy mid-major upset pick! Everyone else is jumping on USF’s jock but this Spartan squad is good. Dick Tomey has a solid defense and some big athletic receivers that are raising eyebrows on the West Coast. The more I read on them the more I like them.
25. Oregon
A defense returning a lot of playmakers and an offense with Jonathan Stewart could overcome Belotti’s QB flip-flopping.
I’m well aware of ASU’s absence, but a team with so many defensive questions does not deserve such a ranking. Add to that, last year’s quarterback play wasn’t exactly lights out and the receivers were downright terrible.
Who got left out and why:
Alabama: I’m not convinced Saban is the second coming of the Bear…yet. Arizona: Offense
Arizona State: Defense
Auburn: Cox isn’t that great of a QB and a lot of starters are gone
Kentucky: Defense and last year’s luck (+15 TO margin)
Maryland: they won 9 games last year, but against whom?
Missouri: I’ve heard the have a great QB, but I haven’t heard anything else
Nebraska: Sam Keller can’t do it alone… or can he?
Oregon State: They’re going to miss Matt Moore A LOT
South Florida: Sorry, I’m just not buying it.
TCU: SJSU got my sexy mid-major pick. Sorry.
Texas A&M: the coach Fran unexciting factor
Texas Tech: Yarr, defense matey
Wake Forest: Last year was luck, luck, luck. And a weak ACC.
EDIT: As an observant reader was quick to point out, I totally forgot about Wisconsin. The Badgers have to replace QB Stocco but they have another one of those huge yet mysteriously quick backs and you know Wiscy is always powerful in the trenches. They probably deserve to be wedged somewhere in between Michigan and Penn State, but damn if I know who to bump.
This isn’t a prediction of how teams will finish, and schedules were not examined. This is simply my perception of the country’s top 25 teams as they stand right now. There’s obviously a lot of guesswork here, and I made a special effort to not look at other preseason rankings. It seemed like there were a few teams that belonged in the top 10 but that there was an abundance of teams that should be in the 10-20 range. Here goes…
1.USCA very easy one here with essentially the entire defense back from a damn good team. JD Booty has a year of experience and the offensive skill players are a group of plug-and-play 5 star blue chippers.
2. West Virginia
A dangerous offense returns all of the skill players and the best running back recruit in the nation in Noel Devine.
3. LSU
Absolutely incredible depth to offset losing the #1 NFL draft choice.
4. Michigan
Many schools have “triplets,” but none are better than Henne, Manningham, and Hart.
5. Oklahoma
No QB? No problem. OU has superb talent at every position and a new QB will make their margins of victory smaller, that’s all.
6. Texas
They had a hiccup year after the 2005 MNC, but things seem to be coming back together in Austin. Everything is bigger there, after all.
7. Virginia TechOn top of being everyone’s sentimental favorites, the running game and defense are going to be top notch, especially with one of the best linebacking corps in the country.
8. Louisville
The nation’s best drop-back passer is surrounded by a big, physical team. I wouldn't want to play them.
9. Arkansas
The pairing of the best player in college football and the most underrated running back in college football will be a tough tandem.
10. UCLA
20 starters back on a strong defensive team. Skill players a-plenty, too. Consistency will be key considering the blowout loss that followed the upset of USC.
11. South Carolina
The ‘Cock defense has had some growing pains but almost all of them are coming back and they’ve gelled as a unit. Losing Cory Boyd will hurt, but you can count on Spurrier to find decent receivers.
12. Florida State
I tried to ignore coach change hype (see ASU) but this team is loaded to the gills with talent and they were probably held back by jump-ball Jeffy. Watch out for a brewing QB controversy, too.
13. Tennessee
They’ll always have a good line and run game, but Erik Ainge has matured and seems ready to lead this year’s Vols.
14. Ohio State
Tressel will do just fine with a green RB and no passing game, just like he did in 2002.
They’re losing some absolute badasses on defense, but DeSean Jackson has a skill for making people look bad and he’s complimented by another great Tedford back in Justin Forsett.
16. Penn State
This is Penn State at it’s finest: Good QB, good linebackers, and average skill players. It will leave them looking up at Michigan and Ohio State in the Big 10, however.
17. Georgia
A good team last year that lost focus in a few games and it cost them. Stafford is a year better but a lot of little question marks on both sides of the ball keeps them from being higher.
18. Boston College
Matt Ryan has been anointed the best QB in the ACC and they bring a ton back on defense.
19. Oklahoma State
Here comes the offense! They can play some D, but they’ll be this year’s Texas Tech and beat a few teams by simply outscoring them.
20. Hawaii
The Hawaii Bowl taught me that these guys can actually play. They’ve got a mean, physical defense and some quarterback named Colt.
21. Rutgers
Ray Rice, all day long. Schiano built this program the right way and depth is developing everywhere.
22. Florida
Losing nine defensive starters and a starting QB leads to a mid-20s mercy ranking for the champs.
23. ClemsonOne of the better running back tandems in the country with Spiller and Davis. They could get over the hump this year and challenge for the ACC title.
24. San Jose State
Ahhh, a sexy mid-major upset pick! Everyone else is jumping on USF’s jock but this Spartan squad is good. Dick Tomey has a solid defense and some big athletic receivers that are raising eyebrows on the West Coast. The more I read on them the more I like them.
25. Oregon
A defense returning a lot of playmakers and an offense with Jonathan Stewart could overcome Belotti’s QB flip-flopping.
I’m well aware of ASU’s absence, but a team with so many defensive questions does not deserve such a ranking. Add to that, last year’s quarterback play wasn’t exactly lights out and the receivers were downright terrible.
Who got left out and why:
Alabama: I’m not convinced Saban is the second coming of the Bear…yet. Arizona: Offense
Arizona State: Defense
Auburn: Cox isn’t that great of a QB and a lot of starters are gone
Kentucky: Defense and last year’s luck (+15 TO margin)
Maryland: they won 9 games last year, but against whom?
Missouri: I’ve heard the have a great QB, but I haven’t heard anything else
Nebraska: Sam Keller can’t do it alone… or can he?
Oregon State: They’re going to miss Matt Moore A LOT
South Florida: Sorry, I’m just not buying it.
TCU: SJSU got my sexy mid-major pick. Sorry.
Texas A&M: the coach Fran unexciting factor
Texas Tech: Yarr, defense matey
Wake Forest: Last year was luck, luck, luck. And a weak ACC.
EDIT: As an observant reader was quick to point out, I totally forgot about Wisconsin. The Badgers have to replace QB Stocco but they have another one of those huge yet mysteriously quick backs and you know Wiscy is always powerful in the trenches. They probably deserve to be wedged somewhere in between Michigan and Penn State, but damn if I know who to bump.
Labels: blogpollin', we're sorry Sam Keller
